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Thinking safe
If you are new to the outdoors, it can be hard to know what you don't know, if you get my meaning. To indentify a risk, you need to be familiar with what poses a danger to you and what doesn't, and that requires experience and that sticky web of concepts known loosely as 'judgement'. This is where a DIY tramping website starts to run into problems. Experience is not something easily imparted online. So below there are some strategies for managing risk in the outdoors to help trampers think safe, while carefully gaining experience with the help of more experienced peers and/or professional instruction.
"A ship in harbor is safe - but that is not what ships are for. " John A. Shedd
Up Periscope!
Like a submarine running deep, when you are stumbling along through the bush in the rain, looking down at your feet as you navigate you way over tree roots, you are operating blind. So it is essential to put the periscope up and take a look around regularly to see what's happening 'top-side'.
During a periscope sweep, check the following...
Human versus Environmental hazards
Hazards come in a million different shapes and sizes, but they can all be boiled down into two categories. Human hazards are those that stem directly from the actions and decisions of people. Environmental hazards are hazards that exists due to the state of the environment, and are rarely influenced by human action. When you are planning a tramp, or assessing a situation, it is useful to categorise the hazards you identify before deciding on how you will manage them.
Some examples of human hazards...
Examples of environmental hazards...
When environmental and human hazards overlap, the potential for an accident exists. For example, a flooded river by itself poses no threat, but if an inexperienced and over-confident tramper attempts to cross the river then the equation changes for the worse. The likelyhood of an accident also increases as hazards accumulate. For example, the risk of a tired tramper being hurt on a wet track would be compounded if you add steep terrain and cold weather. If your periscope sweeps identify accumulating hazards and/or the combination of human and environmental hazards, stop and reassess your situation.
Absolute Risk
At the extreme end of the scale, the absolute risk is that you or a companion dies. It is important not to side step this uncomfortable truth. If nothing else, your attempts at managing risk should aim to prevent this outcome. The following statistics are collated from informal records held by the Department of Conservation for Arthur's Pass National Park and it's immediate borders. They are not complete or detailed, but provide a good overview. Keep in mind that these figures are representative of only one area.
Fatalities (49) in the Arthur's Pass area since 1926 (excluding whitewater and technical mountaineering activities)
The figures above suggest that rivers and steep terrain are the greatest hazards faced by trampers in the Arthur's Pass area. But by reading between the lines and interpreting the source data, it becomes obvious that it is the accumulation of several lesser hazards that often leads to a tragic accident.
With all of these fatalities there would have been contributing human hazards as well. For example, at least 44% of the falls can be identified as having occured while the deceased person was lost or off route. So poor navigation skills or navigational mistakes made under duress are key human hazards. Approximately 60% of the fatalities occured within less than 1 days walk from the townships of Otira or Arthur's Pass, suggesting many of the deceased were on a daytrip. It could be assumed then that underestimation or ignorance of the risks involved in making shorter jouneys in the mountains is also a key human hazard. While not recorded, poor weather was also a key environmental hazard in many of these fatalities. While hypothermia is only recorded as the primary mechanism in 4% of the deaths, it is very likely that it resulted in poor decision making or poor coordination in many more cases. Poor decision making or poor coordination, for example, may then have led to a fall when on steep terrain or while river crossing, causing a fatality. The lesson from this is to not allow those hazards to accumulate and begin snowballing. Anticipate them and counter them as they arise.